Pennsylvania Picks Presidents
First published: August 1, 2024
One of the few things America’s Republicans and Democrats agree on in this politically polarized country is that Pennsylvania picks US Presidents. Most of America’s 50 states vote consistently true-blue Democrat or reliably-red Republican. But Pennsylvania – PA for short – is one of just a handful of states that tends to swing with the tide in national elections. It also has an unusually strong record of picking presidents.
Since the first presidential election in 1789, Pennsylvania has voted for the victor 48 times out of 59 (81%). Since 1976, it’s done it 10 out of 12 times (83%), and since Pennsylvanians voted for Obama in 2008, it’s picked the eventual victor every time: Obama twice, then Trump in 2016, and Biden in 2020.
In the big picture, why does that matter?
The presidential candidate who wins Pennsylvania currently receives 19 Electoral College votes towards the overall target of at least 270 votes to take the White House. The number is proportional to the size of the state’s population, and the winner takes all. Only four other states – California, Florida, New York and Texas – deliver more votes.
Two of the larger states by population, Florida and Ohio, used to be classic swing states, though demographic changes have shifted both towards the red corner in recent elections. Florida was on a knife edge in 2000 when several recounts were needed for George W Bush to snatch the state and the White House from Al Gore. (Remember the hanging chad debate?) But a host of right-leaning retirees have migrated south to the Sunshine State since then, and its swing-ability is now in doubt.
That leaves PA, with a population of 13 million, as the biggest swing or so-called purple state by population in 2024. The others now framed as battleground states include Michigan (15 votes), Arizona (11), Wisconsin (10), and Nevada (6). Georgia (with 16 votes) leans red, though it memorably fell to Biden in 2020.
This explains why, like party activists in marginal British constituencies, the Democratic and Republican party machines focus so much effort and cash on the swingers. That’s everything from street-by-street door-knocking to ensure voters are registered, to in-person rallies showcasing the candidate and expensive TV ads.
So, what is it about Pennsylvania that makes it such a reliable predictor of Presidents?
A major reason is the state’s demographic diversity. In many ways, it’s a microcosm of the whole nation, encompassing a mix of urban, suburban, and rural. The major cities, Philadelphia in the south-east, the state capital Harrisburg towards the middle, and Pittsburgh in the west, predominantly vote Democrat. The largely rural central and northern counties, often referred to pejoratively by urbanites as Pennsyltucky, for its similarity to Kentucky, lean Republican.
And you don’t have to travel far into the state to find small-town America. PA has more than 2,500 incorporated municipalities. They range in head count from 1.5 million in Philadelphia and 300,000 in Pittsburgh to just seven in the borough of Valley-Hi, near the border with Maryland and West Virginia. Half of these boroughs or townships have fewer than 2,000 residents.
The presidential election results from 2020 tell it even more clearly. Of Pennsylvania’s 67 counties, 54 counties voted for Trump, while just 13 voted for Biden. But Biden still won the state. Why? Because those 13 counties are home to seven out of nine of the state’s biggest cities.
And the issues that resonate with Pennsylvania voters are as varied as the state’s geography. In urban areas, issues like gun control, police reform, and healthcare are often paramount. Suburban voters, who tend to be more centrist, are typically concerned with education, taxes, and infrastructure.
In the rural areas, issues related to economic revival – notably agriculture, energy policy, and immigration – and Second Amendment rights, the right to bear arms, all hold significant sway.
The state’s large number of unionized workers also makes labor policies, particularly union recognition, a critical issue – and usually favors Democrat candidates. Biden, who was born in Scranton, PA’s seventh-biggest city, regularly reminded his audiences on the stump that he was “a union man through and through”.
Across the board, the opioid epidemic has hit Pennsylvania hard, as has inflation, with the cost of groceries in PA rising faster since the pandemic than in any other state; up 25% between 2020 and 2024. In the swing county of Erie in the state’s north-west corner, one of the 13 that voted for Biden in 2020, around one-in-eight people were reported by Datasembly recently to be food insecure.
Pennsylvania: The Keystone State
Americans love pithy labels. Since the early 1800s, Pennsylvania’s moniker has been the Keystone State. Originally, it recognized the state’s central location among the original 13 colonies and its foundational role in the Confederation and then union of states after the Revolutionary War.
In architectural terms, Pennsylvania’s position is analogous to the keystone of an arch; a stabilizing force that holds all the other stones in place. If you see it on an outline map of the eastern states, you get the point. But it’s more than just location.
Pennsylvania’s biggest city, Philadelphia, was where the Declaration of Independence was signed in 1776, and the US Constitution hammered out a decade later. It was also the new nation’s capital for longer than anywhere else until Washington DC was built, literally out of a swamp, and could open for business in 1800.
These days, the significance of winning or losing the voters of Pennsylvania in national polls makes the state an electoral keystone too.